Hewison ed. Democracy and Participation. The Pacific Review , 18 4 , December, Merlin Press. Journal of Contemporary Asia, 38 1. Connors, M. Routledge Curzon. The Modernisation of a bureaucratic polity. East West Press. How it was won and how it was undermined. An Essay. In: E. Ranger, T. Cambridge University Press. International Socialism Journal, No. Journal of East Asian Studies 8, Social Movements in Northeast Thailand.
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Go Premium! Premium download. Maximum data security. Direct download links. Expand Collapse. Upgrade to 4shared Premium. Sign up for free. Citing the power but precious time has been lost. It is important to get these generation capacity glut that followed the Asian Financial crisis, policies in place.
EGAT has generation business and controls the subsequently started building new centralized power plants transmission network, providing it with an indicating that the capacity glut argument no longer holds economic incentive to restrict access to the and has even started buit its own joint-venture CHP transmission network for other independent facilities see box 1, page 63 , but the private sector has been power producers unable to compete.
To put it bluntly, it is hard for new cleaner fossil-fuelled CHP to compete against fossil fueled Access to the transmission and distribution system is the only conventional generation if it is not allowed to sell power. If this system is owned and operated by an entity that also owns and controls generation assets, there is potential for substantial conflict of interest: the transmission operator may make decisions that favour construction or It is important as well to build dispatch of its own generation assets.
Often transmission is operated by a separate entity non-profit or for-profit that is rewarded technologies that reflect for efficiency in providing transmission services and serving the environmental and social all customers and generators. Unbundling of transmission and generation is a widely accepted as a precondition to electricity market reform, and has been a central theme in reforms adopted in the United States FERC , Australia IEA , p.
Though a variety of different concluded behind closed doors methods are used to assemble different components of the with no opportunity for input forecast, the demand forecast is fundamentally driven by economic growth projections Vernstrom In the short from external stakeholders. They are clearly not neutral different customer types and sectors and issues its official actors: they exist in an industry structure that, perversely, electricity load forecast.
In Europe and North America, actually rewards overestimates. There are lots of interveners that have with a guarantee of sufficient utility revenues to expand. The their own points of view, and the final result is determined more utilities spend to expand the system, the more profits through an open, transparent and participatory process.
In they are allowed to keep. At the same time, utilities are heavily Thailand, the forecast is concluded behind closed doors with penalized when the power goes out. The closed nature of the proceedings means that there are insufficient These arrangements provide unbalanced incentives that may checks and balances in this speculative and interest-ridden lead to a proclivity to overstate demand.
If demand for process. To illustrate, the January forecast Figure 4 shows successive base-case forecasts over the past overestimated expected peak demand in by 1,MW. The thick line in the graph forecast was issued in April , just two weeks before the below the other lines is the actual demand. Demand forecasts actual peak load occurred. For perspective, consider that one typical large natural forecasts, all nine have over-estimated current demand. There are two interpretations of the past record.
Defenders The considerable uncertainties of these electrical demand of the TLFS forecast argue that the discrepancy between forecasts are forgotten by most observers.
Those who challenge the forecasts large-scale investment decisions involving billions of baht. The PDP is not yet finalized. The reserve margin indicates the amount of generating capacity available in excess of the annual peak demand. The LOLP addresses the fact that there are regional differences in the availability of transmission and generation, and aims to ensure that everywhere in the country should have sufficient generation and transmission to have power Insulated by its technical expertise, EGAT decides what power plants to install, and, because of the cost- plus tariff structure, all costs are borne by consumers.
If EGAT is wrong and costs are underestimated, they are still allowed to recoup most - if not all - costs through tariffs. Energy activists in Thailand have also criticized the PDP for focusing on capital-intensive options such as coal, gas, oil and big hydropower plants for future energy generation.
EGAT Taken together, the load programs the inputs of its computer model in such a way that demand side management, renewable energy, and forecast, the PDP, and the cogeneration are not considered as options that the model cost-plus structure form a can pick, even if they are less expensive than conventional vicious circle: demand options.
They do appear, but only in fairly small, pre- favours expensive centralized determined amounts e. Part of the options with dangerous reliance problem is the additional challenge of useful data collection on imported fossil fuels or posed by widely dispersed DSM and renewable energy imported hydropower; and potential. With many forms of renewable energy and DSM, tariffs pass costs on to capital costs are more site-specific and in many cases small consumers while environmental hydro, rice husks, etc.
Energy efficiency provides another example of the structural problems in the incentives that compensate EGAT. Though energy conservation costs a fraction of the cost of new power plants, EGAT has little incentive to invest in demand side management because its revenues are based on the amount of electricity sold, and energy efficiency leads to lower electricity sales.
Taken together, the load forecast, the PDP, and the cost-plus structure form a vicious circle: demand forecasting tends to overestimate actual demand; power development planning favours expensive centralized options with dangerous reliance on imported fossil fuels or imported hydropower; and tariffs pass costs on to consumers while environmental costs are absorbed by the public as a whole.
In many other countries, regulatory authorities play a much broader role in scrutinizing the power development planning process to ensure that forecasts are reasonable and investments are prudent and timely. True least-cost planning means a public planning process and a framework within which all costs and benefits of all options are considered. In an IRP planning process, demand side management and cogeneration or renewable energy are considered on a level playing field with conventional supply-side resources, and the options selected are those with the lowest overall cost to society.
Source: Energy for Environment 2. Energy efficiency measures, which are expected to have negligible externality costs, should be economically subsidized to a level of 1.
It should be noted that the existing subsidy for renewable SPP is much lower, averaging 0. The studies do not monetize ecosystem damages, or damages from global warming, and are therefore likely to be downward biased Sundqvist While the bottom-up damage cost methodology of the ExternE is among the most highly respected in the field of externality studies, the results are not readily transferable to Thailand because assumptions — including those about atmospheric pollution transport, dose- response relationships, and pollution impacts on material, crops, forest and fisheries — are not necessarily valid for Thailand.
The EC studies assume power plants are built to European environmental standards, which are higher than those in Thailand. On the other hand, noise and visual impacts in Thailand may have different monetary value than they do in Europe. Adjusting the monetized value of European externalities using the ratio of Thai to EC GDPs, while simple, may not be appropriate since some impacts are regional or global.
Lefevre Shrestha and Lefevre These studies use similar simplified GDP adjusted methodology based on ExternE studies, but focus primarily on health and mortality impacts from SO2 and particulates from coal-fired power plants.
A comprehensive assessment of the external costs of each fuel source that is specific to Thailand has yet to be conducted. A key recommendation of this report is that such a recommendation is carried out as part of Integrated Resource Planning policy for Thailand. The letter argued that two corrections should be made. Firstly, the April forecast should be corrected to reflect the actual peak load of 21,MW.
Since all future years are exponential growth functions of the year peak, the fact that the base year overestimated actual demand by MW in leads to 1,MW of spurious load growth by the year The second correction is to reduce the assumed GDP growth.
The April forecast is based on an assumed economic growth rate of 5. In the past 15 years, however, the GDP growth rate has been only 4. Although installed capacity does not describe the capacity for actual electrical output from each technology, it is interesting to note that the identified renewable energy potential to date constitutes over half of existing total installed capacity.
Concerns have been raised that these crops would divert land and water from food production - and therefore we have dropped these from the totals. Decentralizing Thai Power: Towards a sustainable energy system 55 In March preliminary results from a comprehensive study on renewable energy potential were released. This is about one third the cost of electricity generation from natural gas combined cycle gas turbines. First, the study at an average cost of analyses the potential for DSM and energy efficiency using a 1.
This analysis considers only measures that have a payback period of less than five years. This reflects the unfortunate observation that through lack of information and lack of interest, or other reasons, few chose to invest in energy savings opportunities even if they are very profitable.
The heavy discounting of commercially viable DSM measures suggests that an aggressive nationwide DSM program could lead to total savings significantly higher than 2,MW figure reported in the du Pont report. Demand residential and commercial customers.
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